The past week was a roller coaster for participants as markets swung sharply in both directions before closing with strong gains. After a positive start, a sharp decline on Tuesday following the election results wiped out the gains of the last five months.
However, conditions improved in subsequent sessions, allowing the benchmark to recover all losses and end near the week’s high. The Sensex hit a new record high, gaining 3.7%, while the Nifty rose by 3.4%, just missing its record mark.
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All major sectors participated in the rally, with IT, FMCG, and Auto leading the way. The broader indices also saw significant interest, each gaining around 3%.
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We believe volatility is likely to decrease now that major events are behind us, with the focus shifting to domestic macroeconomic data such as IIP, CPI, and WPI for further signals. Additionally, global cues, particularly the upcoming US Fed meeting, will be closely watched by participants.
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The recovery following the post-election decline suggests resilience among participants, and we expect the prevailing tone to continue. We recommend maintaining a positive outlook unless the Nifty decisively breaks below 22,600, with an upside target in the 23,800-24,000 range.
The renewed participation of sectors like IT and FMCG, which were previously on the sidelines, supports our confidence. However, traders should remain cautious and focus on stocks that are moving in line with the benchmark.
(Ajit Mishra, SVP- Research, Religare Broking. Views expressed are the author’s own. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.)
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