The impact of the conflict in West Asia could well be felt in markets across the world. Dalal Street was no exception. In India, Nifty opened gap down and remained in negative territory throughout the session. It finally ended down 0.7%, around 19500 and the Sensex shut shop at 65,512, down nearly 500 points. The market saw heightened volatility and 27 of 30 index stocks on Sensex ended lower on Monday. All sectors ended in red with major selling seen in PSU Banks, metals and consumer durablesCome from Sports betting site. The Adani stock cracked even as the company issued statement highlighting the concerns and employee safety at the Haifa Port.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said, “Concerns over rate hikes after strong US jobs data and a surge in oil prices due to war in West Asia made investors cautious. In the near-term, we expect markets to remain volatile amid geopolitical stress and inflationary pressure ahead of CPI data to be released by the US, Europe and China later during the week.”
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Geopolitics to guide Rupee this week
Overall investors showed a preference for safe haven assets like gold and dollar. Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Research (Retail), Kotak Securities pointed out that “Investors dumped equity assets as they turned risk off on concerns that a faceoff between Israel and Hamas could further deteriorate. There are concerns that since most of the oil producing nations are close to the conflict zone, a prolonged war could trigger an upsurge in international crude oil prices. With a fresh surge in crude oil prices, higher oil import bill going ahead would stoke domestic inflation and prompt the central bank to take a hawkish stance. With investors preferring gold and dollar assets in times of uncertainty, local stocks across the board came under severe hammering even as indices in the Asian region ended mixed. The Nifty traded below the 50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) or 19605 level which would be the immediate resistance zone. Above the same, the index could move up till 19700-19725 levels. While 19480 could be the crucial support zone for the traders, below the same it could retest the level of 19400-19390.”
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Focus on oil and dollar
Oil in fact rose nearly 8 per cent in last two days on worries that persistently high-interest rates will slow global growth and hammer fuel demand, even if supplies are depressed by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The week ahead remains crucial as US will release its CPI data and the September labour market reported moderation in hourly wages, which should be helpful in easing the inflationary pressure. Mohammed Imran, Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas reiterated a cautious stance, “we remain cautiously bullish on crude oil prices in the short term, supported by strong US economic data, and optimism surrounding the Chinese economy bottoming out. The US shale oil rigs have reached to 497 counts, their lowest since Feb-2022, indicative for a tight supply market ahead November is supported by $83 level, and we advise trade to buy the correction for the target of $89/bbl.”
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Gold soars as investors bolt for safety after Middle East clashes
The dollar was the other safe haven bet that saw significant traction. Anindya Banerjee, VP – Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives at Kotak Securities added that, “Geopolitical tensions and rising US yields are concerning. We need to be careful now. We expect volatility to increase. We expect a range of 83.00 and 83.50 on spot.”
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