By Bhavik Patel
The geopolitical risk premium returned to oil markets this week after Israel rejected a ceasefire offer and bombed Rafah. However upside is still capped due to weak demand and bearish calls from US Energy Information Administration, saying that US crude output is unlikely to surpass the current level of 13.3 million b/d until early 2025.
Last week Brent crude breached the $80 per barrel mark, while WTI climbed above $75, a notable movement for the first time in February. The market was influenced by various factors, including escalating Middle East tensions, unexpected trends in U.S. fuel stocks, and developments in Russian oil exports.
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The past week was a roller coaster for participants as markets swung sharply in both directions before closing with strong gains. After a positive start, a sharp decline on Tuesday following the election results wiped out the gains of the last five months.
However, conditions improved in subsequent sessions, allowing the benchmark to recover all losses and end near the week’s high. The Sensex hit a new record high, gaining 3.7%, while the Nifty rose by 3.4%, just missing its record mark.
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